How Will 2024's Performance 8 Score Changes Impact Our School?
Written by Barnaby Grimble, Co-Founder & Chief Product Officer of Pupil Progress
The Department of Education (DfE) has just released the 2024 Attainment 8 (A8) averages and published the provisional scores. Pupil Progress uses the most recent A8 averages to calculate predicted Progress 8 (P8) scores for your students and schools. As a result, we have updated our platform from the Revised 2023 scores to the latest provisional scores published in December 2024.
The DfE has also announced that no P8 scores will be calculated in 2025 (current Year 11) or 2026 (current Year 10), as these cohorts did not sit Key Stage 2 assessments due to COVID-19. Many school leaders using Pupil Progress are generating an expected A8 estimates, which can be used to calculate P8 scores. While not mandatory, they are finding this approach helpful as an indicator to guide additional support and address underachievement where needed.
How Have Attainment 8 Averages changed?
We have analysed the changes between the provisional scores published in December 2024 and the previous set released in February 2024. On average, the overall A8 score for 2024 has decreased by 0.44 compared to the 2023 scores. This represents a significant change compared to previous years.
In contextual terms, this means that the average student in 2024 had an A8 score that was lower by 0.44 of a grade across their 10 P8 contributing subjects compared to an equivalent student in 2023. While it's not possible for a single student to experience this exact change, as it is a statistic based on a large sample, we can provide some examples to put it into meaningful context.
For instance, if you took a group of 100 students spread across all of the prior attainment groups:
Approximately 44 students would have had one subject graded
lower by a single grade (that is counted in P8).
Alternatively, 22 students might have had two subjects graded lower by a single grade.
Or, 22 students might have had one subject graded lower by two grades.
Incidentally, this is a more significant change compared to the shift from 2022 to 2023, when the average A8 score increased by 0.11.
Why Have Attainment 8 Scores Statistically Decreased Nationally?
Looking at our comparison download, the most significant difference was in the open element of the A8 scores, which decreased by 0.40. Maths (-0.01), English (-0.04) and EBacc (0.00) were broadly in line with previous years. This suggests that schools nationally placed much more focus on maintaining achievement in the core and EBacc subjects, rather than in the Open subjects. Alternatively, this may reflect a longer-term impact of the challenge faced in teaching Open subjects during Key Stage 3 (KS3) due to Covid-19.
There are likely to be many contributing factors, felt differently by individual schools, but collectively leading to a significant national difference .
What's the Difference Between “Provisional” and “Revised”?
Students may have had papers resubmitted for remarking or grades challenged. The results released in December are considered “Provisional” because the A8 averages are based on the initial results from the summer. These scores provide an early indication of the A8 and P8 measures.
Once all papers have been moderated and any final challenges resolved, the DfE publishes a set of “Revised” A8 and P8 scores. These represent the finalised figures. The difference between the Provisional and Revised scores tends to be very small.
What is the Impact on Our Current Progress 8 Predictions?
The update means you might see your school's P8 prediction increase by approximately 0.44 per 100 students (assuming there have been no changes to students' grades). Of course, the exact figure will vary depending on your cohort’s Key Stage 2 average scaled scores, but this provides a useful ballpark estimate.
The variation will depend on your cohort's prior attainment and the methods you are using to calculate. This is expected and entirely normal. Using a more recently published A8 score improves the accuracy of your school's P8 estimations as much as possible at this point in the year, based on the national figures available.
Of course, there is always room to refine your Teacher Predicted Grades, and at Pupil Progress we are happy to support you in doing so!
Do We Have to Estimate a Progress 8 Score for Our Year 10 and Year 11 Students?
Absolutely not! Ofsted won’t consider it or place any value on it if you do. P8 scores will not be calculated for 2025 or 2026. However, we still want to ensure students’ achievement is as high as possible. Don’t forget that A8 scores will still be calculated and will hold much greater importance.
Identifying achievement gaps, underperforming students, or subject areas requiring additional support remains as important as ever.
Generated attainment targets for students will be just as useful, especially when combined with Pupil Progress’ identification and tagging tools. An estimated P8 score, while not essential, can be powerful tool to help you focus your team’s efforts - particularly when using the Key Stage 4 Grade Summary to target key subject areas or students.
Whether or not you use P8 scores, you can continue to leverage the question-level data in Pupil Progress exam board-specific trackers. These tools are invaluable for identifying gaps and target groups of students, helping to raise overall attainment.
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