The DfE have published the 2023 Provisional Attainment 8 averages. These are provisional as the Attainment 8 averages change between October and February because students will have had papers resubmitted for remarking and challenges made to grades awarded.

As the 2022 Attainment 8 averages are used to calculate predicted P8 scores for your students and schools on Pupil Progress, we have updated our platform to use the most accurate set; the revised scores published in October 2023.

We have analysed the changes between the provisional scores published in October 2022 and the updated ones in February 2023. On average, the overall Attainment 8 average has decreased by 3.38 between 2023 provisional scores and the 2022 revised scores.

This means that the average student has decreased their Attainment 8 score by 3.38 of a grade across their ten P8 contributing subject scores (including Maths and English counting twice). 

To put this into context, this is the equivalent of two thirds of all 2023 students getting a grade lower in 3 of their subjects, and a third of students in 4 subjects, compared to students with the same KS2 prior attainment in 2022.

Essentially yes; ofqual we required to reduce the number of students getting higher grades, to bring the percentage of students achieving each grade in to closer alignment with the distribution seen in 2019 before covid. As Teacher Assessed Grades awarded from 2020 and 2021 saw a large increase in the number of higher grades being awarded, Ofqual was mandated to bring the distribution back down over two years in 2022 and 2023.

This is shown by the lower Attainment 8 score of students on a same KS2 scaled score between 2022 and 2023.

The update would mean that you might see your schools P8 prediction increase by a maximum of approximately 3.38. But before you get too excited, it is unlikely it increase by 3.38 as it will depend:

• on your cohort’s KS2 average scaled score
• the number of students who were already below the 2022 minimum threshold (capped) value
• the number of students who are now the 2023 capped value

The minimum threshold value is used to avoid seriously negative P8 scores of individual students having a disproportionate affect on the P8 score. So if a student has a P8 of -7.06, then the higher (less negative) capped score will apply instead. The minimum threshold value allowed for a student is also dependent on their KS2 scaled scores, and has increased from by 0.03 on average.